An uncertainty management company

Decision intelligence for energy system planning and operation under uncertainty.

For

Robust investment decision intelligence under uncertainty.

  • Decision intelligence for long-term energy infrastructure investment under market, technology, policy, system and weather uncertainty.
  • Accurate and robust asset valuation help you make the right bidding decisions in your next renewable energy projects.
  • Efficient model building and analytics capability in a unified software platform.
Request a demo

Reliable and resilient system operation under uncertainty.

  • Fast decision intelligence for a secure system operation with unmatched speed.
  • Examine system expansion proposals under uncertainty.
  • Diagnose and visualise system bottleneck effortlessly for your next assessment report.
Request a demo

Unlock long-term European power prices.

  • Unique model library unlocks European long-term power prices decades ahead.
  • Robust day ahead power price forecast under market, policy, system and weather uncertainty.
  • Fast decision analytics with a user friendly interface to help you deliver your next power market analysis effortlessly.
Request a demo
Understanding uncertainty
Defining uncertainty

Most decisions have to be made before the future is revealed.

Uncertainty is a state of having unknown information about the future. It prevents decision-maker from knowing the consequences of a decision but also comes with great value if managed properly.

EORC uses scenarios to represent the unknown information to identify the hidden value in uncertainty.

Why it matters

Significant value is hidden in uncertainty.

Managing uncertainty via scenario modelling help to make the optimal decision considering the expectation of the unknown future. This helps the decision to be more robust than decision made considering only one future. This also helps to find and quantify the value of flexibility.

See it in a small example
Today Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Single forecast
Possible futures One forecast
What Planning With Uncertainty Looks Like

Managing uncertainty helps us find the value of flexibility.

Here is a simple energy storage example showing planning under uncertainty can yield much higher revenue.

Today £110 £10
Tomorrow's energy prices are unknown but we know the distribution of them, 110£/unit or 10£/unit with equal probability.
Buy energy today
£50
per unit
Store it
£20
per unit
Battery size
100
units
Decisions to make
  1. Whether to charge the battery today at £50.
  2. Whether to discharge tomorrow at the unknown price, or wait and discharge the day after at a guaranteed £50.
Today £110 £10 Average £60
The average guess squeezes both outcomes into one number.
APlan with the expected price

The average price is £60, only £10 more than the £50 you paid. Storing costs £20, so it looks like a loss.

Don't charge the battery today at all.

Today £110: discharge tomorrow £10: keep, discharge for £50
Planning for both outcomes means having an answer for each.
BPlan for both outcomes

If the price is high, sell tomorrow and earn £60 a unit. If it is low, keep it and earn £0. On average that is £30 a unit, more than the £20 storage cost.

Buy 100 units

High price (50%)
+£4,000
sell tomorrow at £110
Low price (50%)
-£2,000
keep it, sell at £50
On average
+£1,000
not buying earns £0

Each case already includes £5,000 to buy the energy and £2,000 to store it.

£1,000
more on average by planning for both outcomes

The average misses the value of adapting.

Planning for many possible futures like this is called stochastic optimization.

Illustrative prices in pounds. Storage starts empty, with no energy losses or extra charges. £1,000 is an average; the low-price case loses £2,000. For simplicity, we omit the fee for the fixed-price sale.

What we do

We make stochastic modeling an effortless part of your workflow

Uncertainty becomes an input to every plan, rather than a caveat added at the end.

Plans that hold up across many possible futures.

We test each plan against scenarios built from history, forecasts and your own assumptions, and show the likely range and the risk it carries.

From model to answer, without code.

Set up the model, run scenarios and read prices, pathways and valuations in one platform, with no programming needed.

Works with what your team already uses.

Bring in the data you already have, and take the results back into the software your team relies on.

Our technology

Managing comprehensive strategic and operational uncertainty with unmatched computational performance with EORC decision intelligence.

EORC's optimisation and machine learning powered decision intelligence handle large-scale energy system models far beyond the limit of industry leading decision solution providers.

Data
Scenarios from history and your assumptions
Algorithms
Fast optimisation and AI
Models
One integrated energy system
Results
Prices, pathways, valuations, risk
Hours → Decades

Scenarios for every time horizon.

We turn historical data, probabilistic forecasts and your own assumptions into short-term operational and long-term strategic scenarios.

549x faster than industry leading solvers

Solve complex energy models beyond the limit of industry leading solvers

Focus on your energy models, EORC's optimisation and machine learning will solve the problem with unmatched speed.

Model library

Modular energy library for every energy carrier, conventional or emerging.

Modular model building for power, heat, hydrogen, oil & gas and CCS across Europe.

Results analytics

More confident decisions for your next energy investment.

Robust power price outlooks, infrastructure pathways, and asset valuations accounting operational and strategic uncertainty.

See the benchmarks, models and full platform. Explore the technology →

Decision intelligence for your energy systems under uncertainty